About APES Lab

APES Lab develops computational tools that simulate how millions of individuals, firms, and institutions might respond to policy changes. Unlike traditional forecasting methods that rely on aggregate statistics and historical patterns, our approach models behavior from the ground up.

Each agent in our simulations has its own goals, constraints, and decision-making processes. By watching how these agents interact within carefully designed institutional environments, we can observe emergent phenomena that aggregate models miss entirely.

Our work spans monetary policy, trade, regulation, labor markets, and climate economics. We collaborate with academic researchers, central banks, international organizations, and government agencies to bring simulation-based insights to real policy decisions.

Policy decisions affect billions of lives, yet policymakers often operate with incomplete information about how people will actually respond. Traditional economic models assume representative agents with perfect rationality—assumptions we know to be false.

Our simulations capture heterogeneity: different people respond to the same policy in different ways depending on their circumstances, beliefs, and behavioral tendencies. This heterogeneity can dramatically change aggregate outcomes.

By providing policymakers with tools to explore counterfactuals and stress-test proposals before implementation, we aim to reduce policy mistakes and improve outcomes for everyone.